Module 4: Forecasting and surveillance

Theme

Forecasting and surveillance

Essential Question

How do models support trend detection?

Module Components

• Book prose: conceptual framing, domain scenario, methods, and failure modes

• Assignment: evidence-backed production of a specific artifact

• Slides: presentation sequence for seminar or lecture delivery

• Narration: spoken version of the slide flow

• Rubric: criteria for evaluating the module artifact

• Notebook: executable lab aligned with the module theme using synthetic patient-level risk factors including utilization, chronic-condition count, access burden, and prior intervention

Module Artifact

risk stratification brief with equity checks, intervention criteria, and monitoring plan focused on forecasting and surveillance: Create a simple forecast and uncertainty summary.

Professional Setting

Students work as if advising a population health team prioritizing outreach for patients with elevated near-term risk. Their work must be intelligible to population health director, care manager, privacy officer, and community advisory representative.

Use This Module in Order

1. Read the learning chapter.

2. Review the slide deck with the matching narration.

3. In Populi, open the private student-repository link for this course and enter modules/module-4.

4. Clone the repository once or open its Codespace/Colab copy; run lab.ipynb and complete exercise.ipynb there.

5. Self-check with the rubric, commit and push the work, then submit exactly what Populi requests.