Module 4 Overview

Theme

Forecasting and surveillance

Essential Question

How do models support trend detection?

Module Components

• Book prose: conceptual framing, domain scenario, methods, and failure modes

• Assignment: evidence-backed production of a specific artifact

• Slides: presentation sequence for seminar or lecture delivery

• Narration: spoken version of the slide flow

• Instructor notes: facilitation plan, discussion prompts, and grading cues

• Rubric: criteria for evaluating the module artifact

• Notebook: executable lab aligned with the module theme using synthetic patient-level risk factors including utilization, chronic-condition count, access burden, and prior intervention

Module Artifact

risk stratification brief with equity checks, intervention criteria, and monitoring plan focused on forecasting and surveillance: Create a simple forecast and uncertainty summary.

Professional Setting

Students work as if advising a population health team prioritizing outreach for patients with elevated near-term risk. Their work must be intelligible to population health director, care manager, privacy officer, and community advisory representative.